Monday, 31 August 2020

#Nifty #Outlook 1st Sep : OI Data Analysis

Today's day can be summarized as BULLS climb the Stairs but Bears Jump from the Window

Past 6 days gain wiped out in simgle day

  1. FII - 24618 long - 27322.                             DII - 20 long - 160 short
  2. DII and FII have 20% & 58% long position respectively
  3. FII covered almost 25% long and added 50% to their existing short moving longs to 58% from 77%
  4. Yesterday ( screen below) had shown cause of worry with FII 77% long at the beginning of the series. Worry wasn't unfounded. Today there is huge sell number of 5k cr from FII in FnO 
  5. Broad Range for Nifty looks like 11000 - 11900
  6. Nifty had formed Black Marubozu Candle and closed near support near 11339 - 20 DEMA chart shared 
  7. Likewise Bearish Engulfing pattern is visible on Bank Nifty Chart Bank Nifty closed below 200 DEMA which will now be resistance (23911) next support near 22711 - 20 DEMA 

Option Chain Data Interpretation

  1. Highest OI for Puts are at 11.4k followed by 11.3k which will act as support
  2. Highest OI for call is at 11.5k & 11.6k which will provide resistance to upmove
  3. Bears got back to the charging bulls and ran all over them
  4. Notice long covers ( red box) in pots 11200-11700 indicating Bulls on back foot





 





Sunday, 30 August 2020

#Nifty #Outlook 31st Aug : OI Data Analysis

  1. FII - 127 long - 4340 short
  2. DII + 590 long - 1039 short
  3. DII and FII have 20% & 77% long position respectively
  4. FII having 77% long at the beginning of the series is worrying though for now they are pumping money in both cash and FnO
  5. Broad Range for Nifty looks like 11500 - 11900
  6. Bank Nifty closed at 24523 above 200 DEMA 23914 which will act as support. HH HL pattern continues
  7. Nifty Fut has support near 11355 - 20 DEMA Nifty HH HL pattern continues
  8. Data still developing for the series 
  9. Market remains Buy on Dips

Option Chain Data Interpretation

  1. Highest OI for Puts are at 11.5k followed by 11..6 which will act as support
  2. Highest OI for call is at 11.7k & 11.8/6k which will provide resistance to upmove
  3. As suggested Bulls are ruling the roost as of now. Let's see how does unfolds





Future Group Scheme of Amalgamation What-If Analysis

My thoughts for further study

  • Looking at share swap ratio it appears not to be in favor of Future Enterprise Limited (FEL) ( without getting into reason)
  • Rumor around restructuring and Investment by RIL had been doing rounds since last couple of months specially became more active in stock prices around mid July
  • All future Group stocks have been displaying Price Volume Action since mid July
  • Of all the group Stock FEL has appreciated 100% since July lows
  • Rest of the group stocks have appreciated anywhere from 25-50%
  • Given the price appreciation in short term point 1 ( swap ratio against FEL is understandable)
  • Shared below are price charts for all A Future group companies FYR
  • All I am hearing from my followers and colleagues is possible price upside only since the news broke. Implying the euphoria will take place going forward this is where retail investors enter and smart money recurs the party
  • Punters / Smart money who have positioned themselves based on the upcoming events may start booking profits. As it is said "Buy on Rumors Sell on News"
  • While most are bullish on future group stock based on upside due to share swap ratio there can be likely be a scenario that FEL prices now correct given the price rise it has seen and swap ratio against the stock

I have created a What if Scenario with 5%, 10%, 25% and 50% drop in FEL prices from Friday closing price and based calculation on FEL closing price as base

What-If Analysis

Hope above helps you to take informed decision

Happy Investing

ViRu

Charts below FYR

FEL moved to from Rs 10 on July 17th to Rs 20 now 100% appreciation

FConsumer 50% appreciation since July low

Fretail 50% appreciation since July low

FSC 25% appreciation since July low ( least euphoria)

FMNL moved up 33% since July low

FLFL moved up 45% from July low

Disclaimer

Needless to mention prices of all stocks will move the scenario I have build here with baselinr as Friday closing price for the study.

I am not SEBI registered analyst above is my view for further study only.
















Thursday, 27 August 2020

#Nifty #Outlook 28th Aug : OI Data Analysis

  1. FII -7082 long - 36735 short
  2. DII - 589 long + 100 short
  3. DII and FII have 19% & 75% long position respectively
  4. Broad Range for Nifty looks like 11000 - 11700
  5. BNF 20 DEMA at 22423 HH HL continues day 5
  6. Nifty Fut has support near 11323 - 20 DEMA Nifty HH HL pattern continues
  7. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty toched New high for the series
  8. Market remains Buy on Dips
  9. Let's see what New series brings in

Option Chain Data Interpretation

  1. Highest OI for Puts are at 11.5k followed by 11.4 which will act as support
  2. Highest OI for call is at 11.6k & 11.5/7k which will provide resistance to upmove
  3. As suggested in this week bears were on back foot as Bulls are charging taking Nifty across 11600 with strong expiry 




Wednesday, 26 August 2020

#Nifty #Outlook 27th Aug : OI Data Analysis

  1. FII + 22832 long + 19276 short
  2. DII - 0 long - 531 short
  3. DII and FII have 20% & 61% long position respectively
  4. Broad Range for Nifty looks like 11000 - 11700
  5. BNF 20 DEMA at 22295 HH HL continues day 5
  6. Nifty Fut has support near 11288 - 20 DEMA Nifty HH HL pattern continues
  7. Both Nifty and Bank Nifty toched New high for the series
  8. Market remains Buy on Dips

Option Chain Data Interpretation

  1. Highest OI for Puts are at 11.5k followed by 11.4 which will act as support
  2. Highest OI for call is at 11.6k & 11.5/7k which will provide resistance to upmove
  3. Notice calls are getting covered all over even at 11600. Good Put OI at 11500 indicates good support at this level 
  4. As suggested in this week bears are on back foot as Bulls are charging
  5. Tomorrow volatility might be order of the day expect strong closing to expiry




Tuesday, 25 August 2020

#Nifty #Outlook 26th Aug : OI Data Analysis

  1. FII + 6529 long + 6502 short
  2. DII - 621 long - 290 short
  3. DII and FII have 20% & 63% long position respectively
  4. Broad Range for Nifty looks like 11000 - 11600
  5. BNF 20 DEMA at 22175 made HH HL 
  6. Nifty Fut has support near 11260 - 20 DEMA Nifty also formed HH HL
  7. Birth Nifty and Bank Nifty toched New high for the series
  8. Market remains Buy on Dips

Option Chain Data Interpretation

  1. Highest OI for Puts are at 11.4k followed by 11.3 which will act as support
  2. Highest OI for call is at 11.5k & 11.4"6k which will provide resistance to upmove
  3. Notice calls are getting covered at 11300-400. Good Put OI at 11400 indicates good support at this level 
  4. Bears will try and defend 11450 and try and push back Bulls to 11400




Monday, 24 August 2020

#Nifty #Outlook 25th Aug : OI Data Analysis

  1. FII + 5150 long - 5172 short
  2. DII - 0 long - 716 short
  3. DII and FII have net short & long position
  4. DII and FII have 21% & 64% long position respectively
  5. Broad Range for Nifty looks like 11000 - 11600
  6. BNF 20 DEMA at 22078 made HH HL 
  7. Nifty Fut has support near 11237 - 20 DEMA Nifty also formed HH HL
  8. Birth Nifty and Bank Nifty at New high for the series
  9. Market is Buy on Dips

Option Chain Data Interpretation

  1. Highest OI for Puts are at 11.4k followed by 11.2 which will act as support
  2. Highest OI for call is at 11.5k & 11.4"6k which will provide resistance to upmove
  3. Notice calls are getting covered at 11300-450  indicates bears still on back foot.
  4. Lots of Put writing seen at 11400 signals bullish tinge to market
  5. Bears will try and defend 11450
  6. Bulls are appearing aggressive with puts written even on 11500


Sunday, 23 August 2020

#Nifty #Outlook 24th Aug : OI Data Analysis

  1. FII + 9609 long - 6271 short
  2. DII - 617 long - 0 short
  3. DII and FII have net short & long position
  4. DII and FII have 21% & 60% long position respectively
  5. Broad Range for Nifty looks like 11000 - 11600
  6. BNF closed above 20 DEMA (22000) at 22282
  7. Nifty Fut has support near 11212 - 20 DEMA
  8. BNF Setup as of now looks bullish than NF

Option Chain Data Interpretation

  1. Highest OI for Puts are at 11.2k followed by 11.3 which will act as support
  2. Highest OI for call is at 11.5k & 11.4k which will provide resistance to upmove
  3. Notice calls are getting covered at 11300-350  indicates bears are on back foot.
  4. Lots of Put writing seen at 11300 signals bullish tinge to market
  5. Bears will try and defend 11400 and will push towards 11300
  6. Market Texture Buy on Dips





Reliance Industries #StockToWatch

#Reliance stock is precariously poised at make or break level
  • Price is at bottom of Consolidation Box 
  • Price near 20 DEMA ( green line) will it take support and bounce back as it has exhibited in the past ( green arrows)
  • Recently it got rejected from trendline ( marked red arrow)
  • If stock bounces from here it will test the trendline(s)
  • ADX Signal Strength Strong at 30
  • RSI though above 50 is in downtrend 
  • On hourly Chart Stock is showing weakness
Reliance Will it Won't it breakdown 

If Reliance Breaks Down here we can see 1950 levels 
If Reliance bounces back 2130 / 2200 we may see resistance above which is blue sky zone 


Friday, 21 August 2020

#Jubilant Life #StockToWatch

 Jubilant Life - Good Positional Pick 

  • Price Volume Action continuation
  • Took support from bottom of consolidation box 
  • Took support at 20 DEMA as well 
  • RSI Trending at 58
  • ADX Signal Strength Strong





Future Retail #StockToWatch #FRETAIL

Read Vivek Ruparel's answer to Is it the right time to buy future retail shares at 130.20? on Quora

#NIIT #StockToWatch

 NIIT - Good Positional Play 

  • Price Volume Action Observed 
  • Price up 8.8% with 3x volumes 
  • RSI Trending at 70
  • ADX Signal Strength Strong 
  • MACD Crossover positive


For Educational Purpose Only 

Thursday, 20 August 2020

#IGL On verge of BO #StockToWatch

 IGL - On Verge of Breakout

  • Price Volume Action Observed 
  • On verge of BO of consolidation box
  • Price up 3.87% with 3.5x volumes 
  • RSI Trending 
  • ADX Signal Strength Good 
  • MACD Crossover positive 
  • Just below convergence of 50 DEMA (414) and 200 DEMA (418)
Stock will do well if prices sustain above 
418 with decent volumes can give decent upside.

Caution: Price near resistance zone 


For Educational Purpose Only 

Mahanagar Gas #MGL #StockToWatch

 Mahanagar Gas - Good Positional Play 

  • Price Volume Action Observed 
  • Price up 4.5% with 3x volumes 
  • Closed above important MA 20 and 50 DEMA 
  • RSI Trending 
  • ADX Signal Strength trading 
  • Positive Crossover in DI 
SL below 984 DCB 



For Educational Purpose Only 


#NHPC - #StockToWatch

 NHPC - Good Positional Pick 

  • Price Volume Action Observed 
  • Price up 12.7% with 7.8x volumes 
  • RSI Trending in overbought zone 
  • Closed above 200 DEMA 21.75) after long consolidation as marked on the chart 
  • Positive Crossover in DI 
  • ADX Signal Strength Good 
  • MACD positive above zero line
Given stock is in over bought territory there might be some correction that can provide Opportunity.  Stock may take support near 22 

For Educational Purpose Only 

#Nifty #Outlook 21st Aug : OI Data Analysis

  1. FII - 9281 long + 14585 short
  2. DII - 590 long - 0 short
  3. DII and FII have net short & long position
  4. DII and FII have 22% & 54% long position respectively
  5. Broad Range for Nifty looks like 11000 - 11600
  6. BNF breached 20 DEMA (21966) and closed at 21915. Now 50 DEMA will act as support 21681
  7. Nifty Fut has support near 111893 - 20 DEMA
  8. Let's see how August expiry data develops 

Option Chain Data Interpretation

  1. Highest OI for Puts are at 11.3k followed by 11.2 which will act as support
  2. Highest OI for call is at 11.5k & 11.4k which will provide resistance to upmove
  3. Notice puts are getting covered at 11100 to 11200 indicates Bulls are treading cautiously into monthly expiry 
  4. Bears defended 11400 with aid of global negative cues. Good call writing seen at 11300. Bulls will be in back foot as we enter into last week of monthly expiry



Top 20 Small Cap Stock to be considered for #Investment

Read Vivek Ruparel's answer to What are the top 20 small cap stocks that can be considered today (August, 2020) which have exciting business fundamentals and future growth prospect? on Quora

What to do #Britannia bought at 3900 for quick gains?

Read Vivek Ruparel's answer to I have Britannia 20 shares bought at a high price of 3900. Should I hold for the long term or what should I do? on Quora

Views on #LUPIN in correction

Read Vivek Ruparel's answer to What are your views on lupin ltd especially after two consecutive high openings but ending lower than the open price? Where is it going on the next two days? on Quora

Wednesday, 19 August 2020

#Nifty #Outlook 20th Aug : OI Data Analysis


  1. FII - 2215 long - 221 short
  2. DII + 507 long - 307 short
  3. DII and FII have net short & long position
  4. DII and FII have 22% & 64% long position respectively
  5. Broad Range for Nifty looks like 11000 - 11600
  6. BNF trading well above 20 DEMA which will now act as support at 21972
  7. Nifty Fut has support near 11184 - 20 DEMA
  8. Market remains Buy on DIPs with VIX below 20

Option Chain Data Interpretation

  1. Highest OI for Puts are at 11.3k followed by 11.2 which will act as support
  2. Highest OI for call is at 11.5k & 11.4k which will provide resistance to upmove
  3. Notice calls are getting covered at 11100 to 11400 indicates bullish texture to Nifty continues with aggressive put writing  at 11300 & 11400 (50% added here)
  4. Bears will try and defend 11400 but seems build are holding Fort well above 11400






Motilal Oswal Financial Services #MOTILALOFS

 MOTILALOFS : Momentum Pick 

  • BO of consolidation box
  • Price Volume Action Observed 
  • Up 6% in back of 8.8 x volumes 
  • RSI Trending at 65 
  • Positive Crossover in DI 
  • ADX Signal Strength Good



Shared for further study

Tuesday, 18 August 2020

SBI Cards #SBICARD #StockToWatch

 SBI Cards : Momentum Pick

  • Cup N Handle Formation
  • RSI Trending at 75
  • ADX Signal Strength Strong 
  • DI Positive Crossover 
  • Trading above Important MA
  • Trading at All Time High

Happy Investing 

Pidilite #PIDLITIND Good Positional Play

 Pidilite Industries - Good Positional Play

  • Price Volume Action Observed over past few days today with 3x volumes with 2.2% Price Rise 
  • Closed above 50 and 200 DEMA 
  • RSI Trending at 59
  • Adx in trading zone usually a lagging indicator 
  • DI Positive Crossover 
Can try to reach for 1450, 1480 upto 1520 

Happy Investing 

Disclaimer
Invested in the stock for long term besides added few more today. This post is for further study 

#Nifty #Outlook 19th Aug : OI Data Analysis

1. FII - 399 long + 1539 short

2. DII - 134 long - 0 short

3. DII and FII have net short & long position

4. DII and FII have 21% & 65% long position respectively

5. Broad Range for Nifty looks like 11000 - 11600

6. BNF closed above 20 DEMA which will now act as support at 21936

7. Nifty Fut has support near 11160 - 20 DEMA

8. Market remains Buy on DIPs with VIX cooked by 4% at 20

Option Chain Data Interpretation

1. Highest OI for Puts are at 11.3k followed by 11.2 which will act as support

2. Highest OI for call is at 11.4k & 11.5k which will provide resistance to upmove

3. Notice calls are getting covered at 11100 to 11350 indicates bullish texture to Nifty continues with aggressive put writing at 10300

4. Bears will now try and defend 11400 and possibly try and push Bulls back to 11300 but need to see how data develops





#Nifty #Outlook 23rd Oct : OI Data Analysis