Sunday, 30 August 2020

Future Group Scheme of Amalgamation What-If Analysis

My thoughts for further study

  • Looking at share swap ratio it appears not to be in favor of Future Enterprise Limited (FEL) ( without getting into reason)
  • Rumor around restructuring and Investment by RIL had been doing rounds since last couple of months specially became more active in stock prices around mid July
  • All future Group stocks have been displaying Price Volume Action since mid July
  • Of all the group Stock FEL has appreciated 100% since July lows
  • Rest of the group stocks have appreciated anywhere from 25-50%
  • Given the price appreciation in short term point 1 ( swap ratio against FEL is understandable)
  • Shared below are price charts for all A Future group companies FYR
  • All I am hearing from my followers and colleagues is possible price upside only since the news broke. Implying the euphoria will take place going forward this is where retail investors enter and smart money recurs the party
  • Punters / Smart money who have positioned themselves based on the upcoming events may start booking profits. As it is said "Buy on Rumors Sell on News"
  • While most are bullish on future group stock based on upside due to share swap ratio there can be likely be a scenario that FEL prices now correct given the price rise it has seen and swap ratio against the stock

I have created a What if Scenario with 5%, 10%, 25% and 50% drop in FEL prices from Friday closing price and based calculation on FEL closing price as base

What-If Analysis

Hope above helps you to take informed decision

Happy Investing

ViRu

Charts below FYR

FEL moved to from Rs 10 on July 17th to Rs 20 now 100% appreciation

FConsumer 50% appreciation since July low

Fretail 50% appreciation since July low

FSC 25% appreciation since July low ( least euphoria)

FMNL moved up 33% since July low

FLFL moved up 45% from July low

Disclaimer

Needless to mention prices of all stocks will move the scenario I have build here with baselinr as Friday closing price for the study.

I am not SEBI registered analyst above is my view for further study only.
















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